BACKGROUND
Despite some progress, global efforts to mitigate climate change are insufficient to meet the goals agreed on by the international community. The 1.5°C limit is widely thought to have been exceeded, while the 2°C target is also barely achievable unless we radically correct our current course. Emissions and temperatures continue to rise, and current scenarios point to a global temperature increase of 3°C or more by the end of the century.
At the same time, the necessary societal and technological momentum that would make extensive decarbonisation by mid-century appear plausible is largely absent – especially as climate policy is being further undermined by geopolitical tensions, economic stagnation and growing societal polarisation.
Because emissions are being reduced too slowly, strategies aimed at actively removing CO₂ from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) are gaining traction. These nature-based and technological approaches will be indispensable in the long term, but are not yet economically viable at scale.
Meanwhile, climate change is already causing significant damage and tying up resources, further reducing the scope for far-reaching transformation. A greater focus on adaptation and on managing climate-related damage is therefore becoming a key prerequisite for maintaining the capacity to transform.
This makes three elements vital for the climate policy agenda: to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, to upscale strategies for negative emissions and to strengthen the adaptive capacity of society.